FUTURE SCENARIOS
of the boatyard industry
In a complex world, full of uncertainty and change, how can organizations and individuals prepare for an unpredictable future?
There are many ways to look into the future. Forecasts, predictions and visions are some that are used by many companies. Scenario thinking is another, based on the fact that the future is uncertain and complex and that a single prediction or forecast may not capture the full range of possibilities. It forces you to think further into the future, to think about negative scenarios and to think in new ways that you did not do before, avoiding confirmation bias. By developing and considering multiple scenarios, stakeholders can better understand the risks and opportunities associated with different future outcomes and develop more robust strategies.
process
To discover possible future outcomes of the boat yard industry, both positive and negative aspects, a scenario matrix has been made. The matrix is based on scenario thinking which is a process that can have various set up. In our case, these were the steps:
1. identify
Identify the key factors and uncertainties. Determine the critical variables and uncertainties that are likely to shape the future based on research, interviews and data. Can include political developments, economic trends, social changes, technological advancements, environmental factors and legal frameworks.
2. EVALUATE
Assess each trend to determine its potential impact and level of uncertainty for the industry. Consider the degree to which the force may significantly affect the industry (high, moderate, low impact) and the level of uncertainty surrounding its occurrence (high, moderate, low uncertainty). Create a matrix with impact and uncertainty as axes.
4. SCENARIOS
It is time to create a set of plausible and internally consistent scenarios that capture different combinations of the two chosen critical uncertainties. Each scenario tells a distinct story about the future and is based on coherent assumptions.
Analyze each scenario in depth to understand its implications for various aspects. Assess the risks, opportunities, challenges, and trade-offs associated with each scenario.
